Cal Poly
Men
-
Women
2015
-
2016 -
2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
Rank | Name | Grade | Rating |
40 |
Peyton Bilo |
SO |
19:44 |
256 |
Ashley Windsor |
SR |
20:27 |
315 |
Molly Haar |
SR |
20:35 |
405 |
Cate Ratliff |
FR |
20:46 |
447 |
Katie Izzo |
SO |
20:50 |
706 |
Julia Vasquez |
SO |
21:13 |
796 |
Morgin Coonfield |
FR |
21:18 |
970 |
Hannah Hull |
SO |
21:30 |
1,090 |
Kylie Nishisaka |
JR |
21:38 |
|
National Rank |
#42 of 344 |
West Region Rank |
#10 of 39 |
Chance of Advancing to Nationals |
6.3% |
Most Likely Finish |
9th at Regional |
National Champion |
0.0% |
Top 5 at Nationals |
0.0% |
Top 10 at Nationals |
0.0% |
Top 20 at Nationals |
1.2% |
Regional Champion |
0.0% |
Top 5 in Regional |
0.7% |
Top 10 in Regional |
89.4% |
Top 20 in Regional |
100.0% |
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Race Performance Ratings
Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.
Race | Date | Team Rating | |
Peyton Bilo |
Ashley Windsor |
Molly Haar |
Cate Ratliff |
Katie Izzo |
Julia Vasquez |
Morgin Coonfield |
Hannah Hull |
Kylie Nishisaka |
UC Riverside Invitational |
09/17 |
908 |
20:11 |
20:43 |
21:08 |
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21:11 |
21:09 |
20:39 |
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21:55 |
Stanford Invitational |
10/01 |
724 |
19:43 |
20:33 |
20:19 |
21:11 |
20:54 |
21:14 |
20:48 |
21:16 |
21:35 |
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) |
10/15 |
709 |
19:19 |
20:24 |
20:47 |
20:52 |
20:40 |
20:51 |
21:22 |
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Big West Championship |
10/29 |
663 |
19:49 |
20:20 |
20:21 |
20:38 |
20:43 |
21:15 |
22:48 |
21:57 |
21:20 |
West Region Championships |
11/11 |
705 |
19:28 |
20:18 |
20:45 |
20:23 |
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21:38 |
21:30 |
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NCAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Ave Finish | Ave Score |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
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8 |
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10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
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15 |
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17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
NCAA Championship |
6.3% |
24.8 |
574 |
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0.1 |
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0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
Region Championship |
100% |
9.2 |
275 |
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0.1 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
6.1 |
15.2 |
35.8 |
29.7 |
7.6 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
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Individual Results
NCAA Championship | Advances to Round | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Peyton Bilo |
76.0% |
45.6 |
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0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
Ashley Windsor |
6.5% |
141.8 |
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Molly Haar |
6.3% |
165.0 |
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Cate Ratliff |
6.3% |
192.5 |
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Katie Izzo |
6.3% |
199.0 |
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Julia Vasquez |
6.3% |
230.5 |
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Morgin Coonfield |
6.3% |
236.0 |
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Regional | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Peyton Bilo |
13.8 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
Ashley Windsor |
52.3 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
Molly Haar |
59.9 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Cate Ratliff |
70.9 |
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Katie Izzo |
75.5 |
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Julia Vasquez |
99.9 |
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Morgin Coonfield |
106.8 |
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NCAA Championship Selection Detail
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Total |
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Region Finish |
Chance of Finishing |
Chance of Advancing |
Auto |
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At Large Selection |
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No Adv |
Auto |
At Large |
Region Finish |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
1 |
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4 |
0.1% |
100.0% |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
4 |
5 |
0.6% |
75.0% |
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0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
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0.1 |
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0.2 |
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0.5 |
5 |
6 |
2.0% |
61.5% |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
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0.8 |
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1.2 |
6 |
7 |
6.1% |
36.4% |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
3.9 |
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2.2 |
7 |
8 |
15.2% |
14.1% |
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0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
13.1 |
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2.2 |
8 |
9 |
35.8% |
0.6% |
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0.2 |
35.6 |
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0.2 |
9 |
10 |
29.7% |
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29.7 |
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10 |
11 |
7.6% |
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7.6 |
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11 |
12 |
2.9% |
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2.9 |
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12 |
13 |
0.2% |
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0.2 |
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15 |
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26 |
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27 |
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28 |
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29 |
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31 |
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32 |
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33 |
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38 |
39 |
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39 |
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Total |
100% |
6.3% |
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0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
93.7 |
0.0 |
6.3 |
Points
At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.